The Pitfalls of Agile Burndowns: Stop Being Agile Bandits

Agile teams often use burndown charts to track progress throughout a sprint. It seems like a solid approach—after all, it’s a visual indicator of how much work remains. But let me be clear: burndowns are Agile banditry! In fact, relying too heavily on burndowns could lead your team down a treacherous path of excessive upfront planning and false security. Let’s explore why burndowns aren’t the hero of Agile, and how embracing a continuous flow mindset can lead to real value.

The Reality of Agile Planning

Imagine this: for your burndown chart to move from the top left to the bottom right in a smooth, linear fashion, you’d need to have planned the entire sprint upfront. Think about that for a moment. You’d need to know exactly what you’ll encounter over the next two weeks to deliver a perfect outcome. And, if you’re doing a project burndown, this planning covers the entire product lifecycle!

But let’s face it—if we’re developing products that don’t yet exist, how can we possibly plan it all upfront? There’s too much complexity, variance, and, quite frankly, too many surprises. If you’re familiar with the data from the Standish Group’s Chaos Report, you’ll know that:

• 65% of what we build changes over the product’s lifetime

• Only 30% of the features we build are actually used by customers 😲

This means we can’t predict the next six months with any degree of accuracy. Attempting to plan everything upfront is like writing fiction—it’s made up. It’s not Agile, and it’s certainly not effective.

Personal Experience: The Sprint Planning Fiction

I’ve seen countless teams spend hours, if not days, planning every detail of a sprint. They meticulously list tasks, assign work, and create elaborate plans for each team member. But guess what happens by Day 2? Half of the plan is already outdated! The team has discovered new complexities, unforeseen dependencies, or—more often than not—the initial plan just doesn’t align with the actual work.

When this happens, the team is forced to go back and update their detailed plan. It becomes a game of catch-up, leaving developers frustrated as they balance delivering value with maintaining an ever-changing backlog.

Embracing Minimal Planning in Agile

So, what should we do instead? The answer lies in minimal, just-in-time planning. When walking out of sprint planning, you should have no more than what’s needed to get started.

That’s right. Your plan should be small enough to tackle the immediate work ahead and allow flexibility for the inevitable surprises. Instead of planning 10 days of work, why not plan just the first 24 hours?

Here’s how to do it:

• Plan the first 24 hours: Start with a small, actionable goal.

• Get together daily: Plan the next 24 hours in your daily Scrum.

• Minimize the backlog: Only add items to the sprint backlog when they are ready to be worked on.

• Adapt quickly: Be prepared to pivot or adjust as new information surfaces.

You want a minimal but sufficient plan, one that’s flexible enough to adjust as things unfold. Too much planning creates overhead and confusion. It weighs down the team with administrative work rather than focusing on delivering value.

Continuous Flow: The Heartbeat of Agile

Instead of getting stuck in the planning trap, focus on the continuous flow of value. In an ideal Agile system, your team is delivering value regularly and adjusting to new information just as quickly. Think of it as a stream of value flowing through your system—always moving, always delivering.

Burndowns, on the other hand, create the illusion that everything will go as planned. In reality, they’re often out of date by Day 2. And when developers are under pressure to deliver, they don’t have the time or inclination to go back and update a bloated backlog of tasks.

Why Burndowns Fail:

• They force upfront planning, which contradicts Agile principles.

• They create an illusion of progress that often hides deeper issues.

• They distract developers from delivering value by bogging them down in task management.

By focusing on continuous flow, teams can adapt to change, deliver value incrementally, and avoid the frustration of managing an over-planned sprint.

My Advice: Ditch the Burndown

Let go of the idea that you need to plan every detail upfront. Instead, embrace the Agile spirit of inspect and adapt. Start with what’s essential, focus on delivering value, and trust your team to adapt along the way. If your organization insists on using burndowns, challenge them. Burndowns are a relic of the past and should be retired along with other outdated practices.

Real-World Examples of Continuous Flow

I’ve worked with teams who successfully shifted away from burndowns. One such team, let’s call them “Team Flow,” initially relied on burndowns religiously. They spent hours trying to track every task and update their charts. But as we introduced the continuous flow approach, their process transformed.

Here’s what changed:

• They began planning only the first 24 hours.

• They adapted quickly as new work emerged, rather than sticking rigidly to the plan.

• Their productivity soared as they focused on delivering value instead of managing tasks.

• They stopped obsessing over whether their burndown chart looked “right.”

The result? Happier developers, faster delivery, and more satisfied customers.

Are You Being Ambushed by Agile Bandits?

If you find yourself stuck in the rut of excessive planning, burndowns, and over-complicated backlogs, it’s time to stop being Agile bandits! Focus on what matters—continuous flow and delivering value.

Burndowns may seem like a good idea, but they’re often a trap, forcing teams into too much planning, creating unnecessary overhead, and leading to burnout. By embracing minimal planning and continuous flow, your team will become more adaptable, productive, and happier.

How Can I Help?

If you’re feeling ambushed by Agile bandits in your organization, my team at Naked Agility can help. We specialize in helping teams break free from outdated Agile practices and focus on what truly delivers value. You can set up a no-obligation consultation by using the links below. Let’s work together to create a flow-based, value-driven Agile environment! 🚀 Stop planning. Start delivering. 🏃‍♂️