The Ghosts of Agile Past: Why Burndown Charts Might Be Holding You Back

Have you ever felt something was off with burndown charts? I know I have. There’s always been this nagging feeling that something wasn’t quite right. Over the years, people have revered these charts as the ultimate tool for monitoring a team’s progress. But I’ve come to realize that this couldn’t be further from the truth.

Burndown Charts: The False Holy Grail

Let’s start by addressing the elephant in the room: burndown charts are often seen as the holy grail of monitoring a team. But when you dig deeper, you realize they’re built on assumptions that just don’t align with the way Agile teams work.

The Myth of Fixed Scope and Just-in-Time Planning

Burndown charts operate under the assumption that the scope of work is fixed at the start of a sprint. The idea is that you can’t change the scope once the sprint begins, or if you do, you need to replace a task with one of equal size.

💡 Let’s get real: This mindset is rooted in traditional project management thinking. You know, the “set it and forget it” approach to scope control. But Agile doesn’t work that way.

Agile embraces just-in-time planning. This doesn’t just apply to the product backlog; it extends to the sprint backlog too. The notion that you can lock in all the work at the start of a sprint is a fallacy. The real world doesn’t work like that.

The Problem with Upfront Task Planning

One of the biggest issues I have with burndown charts is the reliance on upfront task planning. Some teams even go as far as to burn down hours on tasks. To me, that’s the worst way to do it. Let me explain why.

At the start of the sprint, teams often try to plan out every task, along with the hours it will take to complete each one. But here’s the problem:

• We discover more by doing than by thinking upfront.

• No one can accurately predict all the tasks and the hours they will take before they begin.

• Even if you think you’re getting 90% of the way there, it’s still wrong.

💬 My advice? Forget about trying to plan everything upfront. I’m not just saying that 90% is wrong—50% is probably wrong too. The reality is that we often don’t know what it will take to complete a task until we’re already knee-deep in it.

Managing Work Empirically

Agile is founded on empiricism. That means we learn by doing and adapt as we go. In an empirical process, you’re not going to know exactly what it will take to complete a piece of work before you start. That’s why burndown charts, which are designed to predict the trajectory of work completion, are fundamentally flawed.

Let’s consider an alternative: Instead of trying to predict everything upfront, manage the work empirically. Adjust and adapt as you discover new information during the sprint.

Burndown in Story Points or Stories

Now, some teams attempt to improve burndowns by burning down story points instead of hours. Others take it even further and burn down stories. This approach is slightly better because it’s less granular. But even then, it’s not perfect.

✅ Here’s a better way: Instead of focusing on burning down tasks or stories, focus on the flow of value through your system. A steady, consistent flow of value is far more important than meeting some arbitrary goal on a graph.

• If you’re halfway through the sprint and you’ve delivered 50% of the value, things are going well.

• If you’re halfway through and have only delivered 30%, then it’s time to reassess.

But remember, these measurements are still based on the assumption that the tasks were properly scoped upfront—which, as we’ve discussed, is rarely the case.

Agile Teams Need Flexibility, Not Fixed Plans

The teams that excel in Agile are the ones that embrace adaptability. They’re not just delivering on the sprint goal; they’re also managing:

• Technical debt

• Refactoring

• Ongoing bug fixes

• Responding to new business needs

• Production issues

🛠️ The takeaway: Instead of rigidly adhering to a burndown chart, focus on maintaining a consistent flow of value. By doing so, you’ll avoid the trap of trying to hit arbitrary milestones that don’t reflect the real world of product development.

Overcoming the Ghosts of Agile Past

If you find yourself haunted by the ghosts of Agile past—like burndown charts—don’t worry. You’re not alone. Many teams still fall into the trap of relying on outdated tools and practices. But the good news is that you can overcome these challenges.

Here’s what you can do:

• Focus on flow over fixed plans: Prioritize the flow of value through your system rather than hitting arbitrary targets.

• Embrace just-in-time planning: Allow room for changes and adaptations throughout the sprint.

• Rely on empiricism: Make decisions based on what you learn during the sprint, not what you think will happen upfront.

📧 Need help? If you’re struggling with these issues, don’t hesitate to reach out. We can help you exorcise the ghosts of Agile past. Whether it’s through coaching, consulting, or training, we’ll work with you to develop an approach that suits your team’s unique needs.

Conclusion

Burndown charts might seem like a useful tool, but they often hinder Agile teams more than they help. By focusing on rigid plans and fixed scopes, they ignore the fundamental principle of Agile: adaptability.

So next time you find yourself clinging to a burndown chart, remember: it’s just one of the many ghosts of Agile past. And it’s time to let it go. 👉 Ready to move beyond burndown charts? Reach out today, and let’s get started on transforming your team’s approach to delivering value.