Estimating with Confidence

👋 Hi, I’m Martin Hinshelwood from NKD Agility, and in this video, I tackle one of the biggest challenges in software projects: estimation. Traditional estimation methods, whether absolute (hours) or relative (story points), often fall short in high-variance environments. Instead, I’ll explain how probabilistic forecasting can give you confidence and clarity without wasting time on inaccurate estimates.

📌 Chapters:

1. 00:00 – Introduction: Why Estimation is a Struggle in Software Projects
2. 02:30 – The Problem with Absolute and Relative Estimation
3. 05:15 – Understanding Variance and Why Accuracy Isn’t Possible
4. 08:00 – The Power of Probabilistic Forecasting
5. 11:15 – How to Use Historical Data for Forecasting
6. 14:30 – Building Confidence with Probability (85% Confidence Level)
7. 17:00 – Reducing Batch Sizes to Improve Understanding

🎯 Who This Video is For:

• Product managers and project managers tired of unreliable estimates • Agile teams looking for better ways to plan and deliver work • Organizations struggling with high-variance environments and unpredictable timelines • Leaders seeking practical tools to improve confidence in delivery timelines

📖 What You’ll Learn:

• Why traditional estimation methods often fail in software projects • How probabilistic forecasting works and why it’s more reliable • The importance of analyzing and breaking down work to reduce batch sizes • How to use confidence levels (e.g., 85%) to set realistic expectations • Why understanding work is more important than estimating it

💡 Key Takeaways:

• Accurate estimation is impossible in high-variance environments—focus on probabilities instead. • Probabilistic forecasting uses historical data to predict outcomes with confidence. • Reducing batch sizes and understanding work leads to better execution. • Aim for an 85% confidence level to balance risk and realism in your forecasts.

At NKD Agility, we help teams and organizations embrace modern forecasting techniques like probabilistic forecasting to deliver with confidence. Ready to leave outdated estimation methods behind? Visit us today and let’s help you forecast success.

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