Avoiding Agile Banditry: Why Story Points and Velocity Are Misleading Metrics

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5 minute read

Introduction to Agile Metrics: The Pitfall of Story Points and Velocity

When it comes to Agile teams, many fall into the trap of focusing on story points and velocity as key metrics for success. While they may seem helpful, they often lead to inefficiency and distraction from what truly matters—delivering value to customers.

In my years of experience working with Agile teams, I’ve rarely seen a team that benefited from using these metrics. In fact, most teams end up prioritizing the wrong things—like trying to “win” at accumulating points instead of creating valuable products. Let’s dive deeper into why story points and velocity are misleading, and what you should be focusing on instead.

The Downside of Story Points: Measuring the Wrong Things

Why Do Teams Focus on Points?

Many teams fall into the trap of focusing on points for a variety of reasons:

  • Point manipulation: Teams may start adding unnecessary tasks to sprints just to rack up points.

  • Losing sight of value: The focus shifts from delivering customer value to “hitting the points target” for a sprint.

  • Inefficient sprint planning: More time is spent debating the point value of tasks rather than working on meaningful deliverables.

Unfortunately, these behaviors lead to a situation where the point becomes the point. Teams become more concerned with meeting point expectations than solving customer problems. This creates unnecessary tension and, ultimately, takes the team away from what really matters—delivering value.

💡 Pro tip: Instead of obsessing over points, focus on value-based discussions about what the team knows, doesn’t know, and what assumptions they need to test.

Focus on Throughput and Cycle Time

Rather than relying on story points and velocity, Agile teams should shift their focus to throughput and cycle time. These metrics provide a much clearer picture of how effectively the team is delivering real value to the customer. Here’s why:

  • Throughput: Measures how much work a team completes in a given period. It shows the actual value being delivered, rather than arbitrary points.

  • Cycle time: This tells you how long it takes for a task to move from start to finish, helping teams identify bottlenecks and improve flow.

Both of these metrics emphasize flow rather than estimation, ensuring the team remains focused on delivering tangible outcomes. Story points and velocity, on the other hand, often lead to a false sense of productivity and, as I’ve seen in many teams, very little benefit in the long run.

A Case Study: The Danger of Story Points in Contracts

I recently encountered a client who had one of the most extreme examples of Agile Banditry I’ve ever seen: story points written into the contract with a customer. Yes, you read that right. The team had to estimate story points upfront and provide those to the customer. Not only that, but the team would be penalized if they didn’t deliver within a specific range of points.

What Went Wrong?

  • Story points become the measure of success: Instead of focusing on the product’s quality or customer value, the team became obsessed with hitting point targets.

  • Incentivized dishonesty: The team felt compelled to inflate estimates to avoid penalties, leading to a lack of transparency.

  • Breach of contract risk: The contract had penalties for missing the point targets, which placed unnecessary stress on the team and made them focus on covering themselves rather than delivering quality work.

This is the opposite of what Agile is about. It promotes deception rather than collaboration. If you’re in a situation where story points are written into contracts, it’s time to ditch the story points. They don’t belong outside the team, and they certainly don’t belong in a contract!

🚨 Lesson learned: Never, under any circumstances, include story points in contracts. You’re setting your team up for failure, and you’re not promoting transparency or honest conversations.

Best Practices for Agile Teams: Ditch the Story Points

When Story Points Can Be Useful

Story points aren’t inherently evil. In the right context, they can be helpful, but only if used correctly:

  • Planning Poker: It’s a great tool for teams to collaboratively estimate and discuss unknowns. It encourages conversation around the complexity and risks involved in upcoming work.

  • Internal discussion tool: Story points can be useful for team-only conversations, allowing the team to reflect on their understanding of the work.

However, at the end of the planning session, delete the data. The story points have served their purpose, which was to facilitate conversation and understanding. Once that’s done, they no longer hold value.

⚠️ Caution: Story points should not be used as a performance measure by product owners or stakeholders. If your product owner is using velocity to monitor team performance, you’re on the path to Agile Banditry.

What Should Agile Teams Focus On?

If story points aren’t the answer, what is? Here’s a list of more objective metrics you should consider:

  • Throughput: How many user stories, features, or tasks are completed in a given time.

  • Cycle time: How long it takes to complete a task from start to finish.

  • Lead time: The total time from when a request is made until it’s delivered.

  • Customer satisfaction: The ultimate metric—how happy are your customers with what you’re delivering?

By focusing on these flow-based metrics, you’re setting your team up for success. You’re measuring the things that actually matter, rather than arbitrary numbers that don’t correlate with customer value.

🚀 Pro tip: Start tracking cycle time and throughput, and you’ll see an immediate shift in team focus towards value delivery rather than point accumulation.

Conclusion: Avoid Agile Banditry and Focus on What Matters

In summary, if your Agile team is spending more time worrying about story points and velocity than delivering value, you might be falling victim to Agile Banditry. Remember:

  • Story points are not the goal—delivering value is.

  • Focus on throughput and cycle time to measure real progress.

  • Never include story points in contracts—it leads to dishonesty and poor outcomes.

Use story points for team discussions only, then delete the data once the conversation has served its purpose.

If you are working on an agile team and you’re focused on story points and velocity, then you’re probably an agile bandit. Story points and velocity have a really negative impact on our ability to deliver. For many teams, I know there are going to be lots of people that, and you’re welcome to comment, that story points and velocity work great for you. I’m sure there are teams out there; I have yet to meet a team that uses story points or velocity that got a positive benefit from it. That’s from observing many, many, many teams.

It creates lots of little negative niggles, like wanting to put things in the Sprint to get the points right. “Oh, we’re going to put a bug in the Sprint; how many points is this worth?” so that we can get our points at the end of this Sprint. The point becomes the points. We don’t want the point to be the points; we want the point to be the value that we deliver for our customers. The points are irrelevant. The points are just a tool to help us as developers on a team have a conversation about what we know and what we don’t, and our understanding, and to gain more understanding.

That’s the point of any estimation for complex cognitive work where you’re building a brand new product that doesn’t exist yet. You want to be focused on the flow of work through your system and throughput and cycle time. Those are the metrics you’re looking for. Story points and velocity are terrible metrics for teams to look at. There are lots of teams, especially brand new teams who have never done anything before, that definitely get encouraged to move down the story point route, and I just think it’s a bad idea. Ditch the story points from the start; focus on flow metrics, cycle time, throughput. Go there.

I did have a customer recently who made the biggest agile banditry mistake I have ever seen, and that was that story points were in the contract with the customer. They were mandated to do story point estimation upfront to provide that story point estimation to the customer, and the customer would measure the team based on the number of story points that they delivered. If you were out with a 15% standard deviation of the number of story points you normally deliver, then you were in trouble and potentially in breach of contract with penalties that come along with it.

I can’t think of a better way for everybody to just make up whatever they needed in order to complete the contract. You’re not going to get transparency there; you’re not going to be able to see what’s going on. Those story points are not going to be the story points that you want them to be. Even if you could possibly get there, which I don’t think you can, ditch story points. Don’t have them in contracts. Don’t ever talk about story points outside of the team.

If you want to do planning poker and sit with a team and do planning poker, fantastic. It’s a great tool to help us as a team collaborate and figure out what we don’t know. But at the end of that event, at the end of that meeting, delete all the data. It is of no value whatsoever beyond our understanding of the need to break things down. That’s what estimation is about. It’s not about story points, and it’s not about velocity. Product owners should not be using velocity to monitor teams; that way lies agile banditry.

So you should avoid being agile bandits. Instead of focusing on story points and velocity, subjective metrics, focus more on objective metrics like throughput and cycle time. Don’t be agile bandits. If you’re being ambushed by agile bandits in your organisation, then my team at Naked Agility can help you, or we can help you find a consultant or expert who can. You can set up a no-obligation consultation using the links below. Don’t forget to like and subscribe if you enjoyed this video.

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