Rethinking Capacity Planning
Explores how effective capacity planning shifts focus from individual hours to system-level flow, using Lean and Agile principles to improve …
TL;DR; The phrase “flow of value” is often misused in software development, as value is only confirmed when customers validate it, not just when work is completed. Teams should focus on validating outcomes quickly, breaking work into small, testable increments, and using data to cut features that do not deliver real value. To truly optimise value, ensure every item has a clear hypothesis, measure time to feedback, and prioritise learning over simply moving work through the system.
The Kanban Guide frames Kanban as a strategy to optimise the flow of value through a system. That phrase, “flow of value,” has helped teams shift from managing task queues to pursuing outcomes. But it can also obscure the truth.
Does value actually flow? Or is it just work that moves?
Value is validated by the customer. Never before. Until the customer confirms it solved a problem, improved their life, or moved a meaningful metric, it’s just work. Calling it “flow of value” without qualification is misleading.
In knowledge work, such as software development, services, and product discovery, most of what flows through the system is hypotheses, not guarantees. Assuming WIP equals value encourages:
It hides waste and sidesteps accountability.
The Kanban Guide helps by pointing to potential value. Work items are bets, nothing more. Managing flow well means reducing the time it takes to validate whether those bets pay off.
Scrum reinforces this by focusing on maximising the potential for value, not assuming it. That is why empirical control exists: transparency, inspection, and adaptation. There is no inspection without delivery to the customer.
In manufacturing, value accumulates visibly. Raw material becomes a part. A part becomes a product. Waste is obvious. In knowledge work, it’s invisible. We’re not assembling. We’re exploring.
You don’t know if something is valuable until it’s in the hands of users. That is why “flow of value” only makes sense in hindsight. Day-to-day, you’re managing the flow of potential value.
Finishing a feature doesn’t deliver value. It creates the possibility of value. If no one uses it, or it solves the wrong problem, it’s a waste. Intent is not impact. That is why systems of work must optimise for learning, not motion.
Unfinished work delivers no value. It clogs the flow and delays feedback. Measuring WIP, lead time, and cycle time isn’t micro-management. It is how we ensure we’re learning fast enough.
“Flow of value” is not a declaration of certainty. It is deliberate shorthand for the pursuit of work believed to be valuable. That belief isn’t enough. You need to make intent visible, validate early, and cut what doesn’t deliver. This means building systems where each item has a purpose. Why does it matter? How will we know? If those questions can’t be answered, it’s just noise.
Value isn’t defined at deployment. It begins with a hypothesis and ends with validation. Efficient delivery pipelines mean nothing if they’re optimising junk. Observability is how you fix that. Define start and end points. Limit WIP. Measure time to feedback.
Attach outcomes to cards. Acceptance criteria. OKRs. Usage metrics. Use SLEs to forecast the time to learning. In DevOps terms, version everything, automate validation, monitor behaviour, use feature flags, and ship small. Then measure. Learn. Adapt.
If your system isn’t designed to validate outcomes, it isn’t flowing value. It is flowing assumptions.
If you’re calling every backlog item “value” and measuring success by throughput alone, you’re lying to yourself. You’re accountable for maximising product value, not just moving work.
Kill unvalidated work. Break big bets into small, testable increments. Use data to kill features that fail. Stop equating motion with impact.
Every item should have a testable hypothesis. Every workflow should surface whether it was delivered. Use flow metrics to measure time to feedback. Run forecasts, but act on what you learn. And stop promoting through environment-linked branches. It’s a waste. Move to trunk-based flow. Ship fast. Learn fast.
“Flow of value” is not free. It’s not automatic. And it’s not a slogan.
It’s a claim. Claims require evidence.
Used lazily, it breeds complacency. Used rigorously, it drives alignment, urgency, and focus. That is the difference between being busy and being valuable.
Each classification [Concepts, Categories, & Tags] was assigned using AI-powered semantic analysis and scored across relevance, depth, and alignment. Final decisions? Still human. Always traceable. Hover to see how it applies.
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